Oil Prices are at the center of President Donald Trump’s latest promise to Americans, with the president claiming that crude prices and gasoline costs will plunge once the United States wins its ongoing war with Iran. Trump said prices would fall “precipitously” and predicted gasoline could eventually drop below $2 a gallon.
The promise comes as the opposite trend is unfolding in global energy markets. Brent crude recently climbed to roughly $97–$98 a barrel, its highest level in six weeks, as renewed attacks involving Iran, the United States and regional targets threaten energy infrastructure and shipping through the Gulf.
Trump Links Oil Prices Directly to Victory
Trump said that once the United States “WIN[s] the war with Iran,” oil prices will fall dramatically, arguing that the decline will be even larger than the drops he says are occurring across other parts of the economy. He also repeated his prediction that gasoline could reach $3 a gallon and eventually fall below $2, saying it would happen quickly.
The president’s argument rests heavily on the assumption that an end to the conflict would remove the geopolitical risk premium from crude. That could indeed put downward pressure on prices if fighting ends and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal. But the timing and magnitude of any decline remain uncertain because oil prices also depend on global demand, inventories, production and the security of shipping routes.
Oil Market Sends a Very Different Signal
Oil Prices have instead been moving higher as the conflict threatens supply. Reuters reported that Middle Eastern oil shipments have fallen from about 18 million barrels per day before the war to roughly 11 million barrels per day, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz have also been heavily disrupted.
The latest escalation has added another layer of pressure. Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked Saudi energy facilities and cities on September 8, injuring more than 70 people, according to Reuters. The attacks pushed oil prices higher and reinforced concerns that the conflict could spread across the Gulf’s energy infrastructure.
The contradiction between Trump’s prediction and the current market is becoming increasingly visible. On September 7, Brent settled at $97.31 a barrel after reaching $98.06, its highest level since July 24. Reuters reported that analysts were warning that further attacks on shipping could push crude substantially higher, with Goldman Sachs seeing a potential path toward $120 under a more severe supply disruption.
Whether Trump’s forecast eventually proves correct will depend heavily on what “winning” the Iran war actually means and whether it produces a durable restoration of Gulf energy flows. For American drivers, the ultimate test will not be Trump’s prediction but what appears on the gasoline pump.
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