Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has moved within single digits of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in the New York governor’s race, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll of likely voters released on September 23, 2026. Hochul leads Blakeman 50% to 41%, giving her a nine-point advantage with about six weeks remaining before Election Day.
The latest figures show only modest movement from August, when Hochul led Blakeman 49% to 39%. Siena said the current nine-point margin places Blakeman within single digits, although Hochul remains at 50% among likely voters. The poll also found that 66% of respondents believe Hochul will win, compared with 25% who expect Blakeman to prevail.
Bruce Blakeman Gains Ground as Hochul Maintains Lead
The poll shows Bruce Blakeman holding a strong position among Republican voters, leading Hochul 88% to 8%. He also has a 44%-39% advantage among independents. Hochul, meanwhile, leads among Democrats by 81%-11%, giving both candidates strong support within their respective parties.
Geographically, Hochul holds a substantial 61%-27% advantage in New York City, while Blakeman leads 47%-44% upstate. The downstate suburbs are much closer, with Hochul holding a 48%-46% edge. The figures show how regional voting patterns are shaping the contest as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Trump and Mamdani Endorsements Enter the Race
The Siena poll also measured voter reactions to two high-profile endorsements. By 51%-30%, likely voters said President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman would be negative for Blakeman’s campaign, while 50%-30% said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul would be positive for her campaign. These figures measure voters’ perceptions of the endorsements rather than their overall candidate preferences.
Hochul’s favorability rating stood at 48%-46%, while her job approval was 48%-47%. Blakeman’s favorability rating was 35%-34%. Siena also reported that voters gave Hochul small leads on issues including making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state.
New York Governor Race Enters Final Stretch
Bruce Blakeman has highlighted the nine-point gap as evidence that the contest has tightened, while Hochul’s campaign continues to emphasize its criticism of his political alignment and policy positions. The Siena poll, however, measures voter preferences at one point in time and does not determine the eventual election result.
With six weeks remaining before Election Day, the 50%-41% poll gives a snapshot of a race that has changed little from August but remains notably closer than Siena’s June poll among registered voters, when Hochul led 52%-32%. OGM News will continue to monitor the New York governor’s race as new polling, campaign developments and voter attitudes emerge.
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