Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are separated by just one percentage point in a new Texas U.S. Senate poll, with Talarico receiving 47% support and Paxton 46% among likely voters.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, conducted September 12–14 among 1,000 likely Texas voters, also found 4% undecided and 2% supporting Libertarian candidate Ted Brown. The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points, meaning the one-point difference falls comfortably within the survey’s stated uncertainty range.
James Talarico Holds One-Point Edge Over Ken Paxton
James Talarico recorded 47% in the latest survey, compared with Ken Paxton’s 46%. Emerson College Polling said there had been no significant movement since its August survey, with Talarico gaining one point while Paxton dropped one point.
The poll also found notable differences among demographic groups. Hispanic voters surveyed favored Talarico 54% to 39%, while the economy remained the top issue among Texas voters at 36%, followed by immigration at 14%, education at 12%, healthcare at 11% and threats to democracy at 11%.
Ken Paxton and James Talarico Enter Final Weeks With Race Closely Divided
The latest figures add to a series of closely watched surveys of the Texas Senate contest. Recent reporting has described the race as highly competitive, while President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton and Republican-aligned groups have committed significant resources to the contest.
For OGM News, the latest poll underscores how closely divided the Texas Senate contest appears in this particular survey. With 4% undecided and the two leading candidates separated by only one point—less than the poll’s ±3-point credibility interval—the numbers provide a snapshot of voter preferences at the time of the survey, rather than a determination of the eventual election result.
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