A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has delivered an awkward political signal for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections: voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 appear considerably more eager to return to the ballot box than Trump’s own supporters. The poll found that 48% of Harris voters were “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with only 30% of Trump voters—a 18-point enthusiasm gap that could become politically expensive if it survives until Election Day.
The Trump Coalition Has a Motivation Problem
The figures are particularly striking because Trump’s 2024 victory depended heavily on strong turnout among groups that had moved toward Republicans. Pew Research Center found that men backed Trump by 12 percentage points in 2024, while Trump also made gains among Hispanic voters.
But the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey suggests the political temperature may be changing. Men now preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 43% to 39%, the widest Democratic advantage among men recorded in the poll during Trump’s second term. In the satirical language of American politics, the Republican turnout machine may have started asking its passengers whether they still want to go to the election.
The problem is not simply that some Trump supporters are less enthusiastic; some also appear less certain about their congressional choices. About 13% of Trump’s 2024 supporters said they were unsure whom they would vote for, compared with 7% among Harris supporters. For Republicans preparing for a midterm battle where turnout can be decisive, uncertainty is hardly the kind of campaign gift that comes wrapped with a red ribbon.
Cost of Living Turns Into a Political Bill
The poll comes as voters increasingly identify the cost of living as their leading concern. Rising energy prices and the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict have become political liabilities for the Trump administration, with Reuters reporting that fuel prices and the war are weighing on Republican prospects ahead of the midterms. Trump said on October 8 that the United States would not attack Iran before the November elections while talks continued.
That creates an uncomfortable calculation for Republicans: voters may be asked to reward the governing party at precisely the moment many of them are complaining about household expenses. A July Pew survey already found that 42% of registered voters viewed their congressional vote as a vote against Donald, compared with 22% who viewed it as a vote for him.
For the GOP, the challenge is therefore bigger than convincing voters that Republicans deserve another term in Congress; it may first have to convince some of its own supporters that the trip to the polling station is worth making. Whether the current enthusiasm gap disappears under the pressure of campaign rallies, advertisements and last-minute political warnings could determine the fate of both chambers of Congress.
For now, the Reuters/Ipsos findings offer Democrats something to celebrate and Republicans something to worry about: enthusiasm is not the same as votes, but elections cannot be won by voters who stay home. With the November 3 midterms approaching, OGM News will continue to watch whether Donald’s coalition regains its energy—or whether the enthusiasm gap becomes the political story that Republicans wish had never been polled.
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