Republicans are setting their sights on Florida as the next major state to undergo a redistricting battle, with plans to potentially redraw congressional lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. According to GOP operatives familiar with ongoing discussions, three to five Democratic-held districts could be reshaped to favor Republican candidates.
The push builds on the map Florida Governor Ron DeSantis championed in 2022, which cemented a GOP majority in the state’s delegation—20 Republicans to just eight Democrats. Party strategists argue that an even more aggressive redraw could help secure long-term control of the U.S. House of Representatives, where Democrats currently need to flip only three Republican seats to regain power.
President Trump, who has pressed for redistricting efforts in Texas and other GOP-controlled states, has encouraged Florida, Indiana, and Missouri to move forward. “With California moving forward with their maps, there’ll be even more pressure to do that,” said one Florida GOP operative, noting Washington insiders are already urging Tallahassee lawmakers to act.
Florida Sets Up Redistricting Committee
The first formal step in this direction came earlier this month when Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez announced the creation of a select committee on congressional redistricting. The move follows a Florida Supreme Court ruling in July that upheld the state’s current map, rejecting claims that the elimination of a majority-Black district in North Florida violated the state’s Fair Districts amendments.
Perez has defended the decision, arguing lawmakers need to carefully examine how the Fair Districts provisions intersect with any future maps. The select committee is scheduled to begin its work in early October, with hearings expected to lay the groundwork for debates in the 2026 legislative session. Republican insiders, however, describe the situation as fluid and dependent on committee recommendations.
At stake are as many as five Democratic-held districts, represented by Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, Frederica Wilson, and Darren Soto. GOP lawmakers are considering plans to merge Democratic incumbents into fewer districts or alter boundaries to include more Republican-leaning areas—moves that could force intraparty Democratic battles or flip seats outright.
Democrats Decry ‘Power Grab’
Florida Democrats have condemned the maneuver as an overt attempt to entrench one-party rule. State Senator Shevrin Jones of South Florida labeled the potential redraw “a straight-up power grab, politicians picking their voters instead of voters picking their representatives.”
Critics point to the 2022 map as evidence that Republicans have already stretched constitutional boundaries. The elimination of a Black-majority district in North Florida, they argue, was designed to weaken minority political influence. Jones added that even Democrats with bipartisan records risk being sidelined in the proposed reshuffle.
Still, experts warn Republicans that pursuing aggressive redistricting comes with risks. Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, said narrowing safe GOP margins to create competitive Democratic districts could backfire. “If you were in a +20 district, are you really comfortable seeing it cut down to +5 or +6?” Wagner asked. “There’s a lot more horse trading in this than people realize.”
DeSantis Pushes for Mid-Decade Census
Governor DeSantis has gone further than legislative leaders, echoing Trump’s demand for a new mid-decade census to exclude undocumented immigrants and account for what he claims was a significant undercount of Florida’s population. The governor argues Florida may have been denied an additional congressional seat, pointing to a Census Bureau report that admitted a 3.48% undercount, totaling more than 756,000 residents.
In July, state Attorney General James Uthmeier sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urging a “corrected census” to give Floridians the representation they deserve. DeSantis insists that, regardless of census action, Tallahassee lawmakers should still redraw the state’s congressional map before the next election.
Census experts, however, cast doubt on the feasibility of the proposal. One bureau staffer, speaking anonymously, said it would be “logistically impossible” to conduct a new census and reapportion congressional seats before the 2026 midterms. The Constitution mandates a count every ten years, and the bureau has given no indication of altering that schedule.
High Stakes for 2026 and Beyond
The redistricting fight in Florida could become one of the most consequential political battles of the 2026 election cycle. If Republicans succeed in carving out additional seats, the move could solidify their grip on Congress and weaken Democrats’ chances of reclaiming the House.
But political observers caution that voter behavior is not always predictable. “The assumptions behind redrawing maps are that voters will behave the same way they did before,” Wagner explained. “Sometimes that holds true, and sometimes it doesn’t.” Any miscalculation could leave Republicans vulnerable in districts they had considered safe.
For now, Florida stands at the crossroads of national redistricting politics, with its legislature poised to act and its governor pushing for even broader changes. Whether the GOP strategy ultimately strengthens its hold or sparks unexpected backlash will become clear as the 2026 campaign season approaches.
