Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. The vice president is now backed by 48% of voters compared to Trump’s 47%, resulting in a statistical dead heat. This shift represents a stronger showing for Harris than the two-point deficit President Joe Biden faced before he dropped out of the race. Notably, Harris has overtaken Trump in Arizona and Nevada and has more than doubled Biden’s lead over Trump in Michigan.
The numbers suggest Kamala Harris could reassemble the voter coalition that propelled President Barack Obama to the White House, offering a clearer path to victory than Biden. A week since becoming the presumptive nominee, the poll indicates that the Democratic Party’s gamble to push an incumbent president off the ballot is yielding the desired effect. The race remains a toss-up, with the gap between the candidates within the poll’s margin of error across the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Enthusiasm Among Young, Black, and Hispanic Voters
Kamala Harris’ candidacy has generated significant enthusiasm among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. More than one-third of voters in the seven battlegrounds stated they are now much more likely to vote due to the contest between Trump and Kamala Harris. The numbers rose to 49% and 44% among Black and Hispanic voters, respectively, with almost two-thirds of Black voters indicating they are somewhat or much more likely to cast ballots in November.
Robert Banks, a 47-year-old Black voter from Marietta, Georgia, expressed excitement about Harris. Despite being an admirer of Biden, he felt the president’s age made him vulnerable to attacks from Trump. While he didn’t like how Biden was “forced out,” he is relieved to have someone different at the top of the ticket and firmly against Trump. This enthusiasm among minority voters poses a challenge for Trump’s campaign, which has aimed to court these groups, especially younger men, to broaden its support base.
Trump’s Struggles and Legal Challenges
Trump has struggled to define his new opponent without alienating swing-state voters. The 78-year-old former president faces significant challenges due to his ongoing legal issues, including being a convicted felon liable for sexual abuse and defamation, resulting in an $83 million payment. Harris has leveraged her record as a prosecutor to counter Trump’s attacks.
Political operatives suggest that the new match-up could alter the electoral strategies for both parties. Kamala Harris’ candidacy appears to have boosted Democratic prospects in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, opening more paths to victory than were plausible for Biden. However, Harris still needs to perform well in northern industrial states. Despite her lead in Michigan and slight edge in Wisconsin, Trump continues to lead in Pennsylvania, which remains crucial for Kamala Harris’ team as they consider her running mate.
Challenges on Immigration and the Economy
Despite her strengths, Kamala Harris faces challenges on issues such as immigration and the economy. Over 40% of respondents in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll rated her impact on immigration policy negatively during her tenure in the Biden administration. This suggests that Republican efforts to blame her for border problems may be gaining traction. Trump’s campaign recently released an ad linking Harris’ leadership on the border to drug trafficking, terrorism threats, and a rise in violent crime.
On economic issues, Kamala Harris has made inroads against Trump, although the GOP candidate still enjoys a clear advantage. Trump holds an eight-point edge over Harris on economic trust, down from the 14-point lead he had over Biden earlier in the month. This shift indicates that while voters may still trust Trump more on the economy, Harris is narrowing the gap. The vice president is also more trusted to unify the country, a critical issue for many voters following the assassination attempt on Trump.
Methodology
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,973 registered voters in seven swing states: 804 in Arizona, 799 in Georgia, 706 in Michigan, 454 in Nevada, 706 in North Carolina, 804 in Pennsylvania, and 700 in Wisconsin. Conducted online from July 24 to July 28, the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing-state registered voters based on various demographics and the 2020 presidential vote. The poll’s statistical margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states, with variations at the state level.
US Presidential election, swing states poll.
MICHIGAN
Harris 53%
Trump 42%
WISCONSIN
Harris 49%
Trump 47%
ARIZONA
Harris 49%
Trump 47%
NEVADA
Harris 47%
Trump 45%
GEORGIA
Harris 47%
Trump 47%
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48%
Harris 46%
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 50%
Harris 46%
