Nearly half of Independents want former President Donald Trump to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race after a New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his criminal hush money case. This sentiment was revealed in a new poll released on Saturday, showing significant concern among this key voting bloc. The poll highlights a critical challenge for President Donald as he seeks to navigate his campaign amidst legal troubles.
The Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday revealed that 54% of registered voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the guilty verdict against President Donald. Furthermore, while 49% of respondents believe President Donald should be sentenced to probation, a notable 44% think he should receive a prison sentence. Additionally, 68% of those surveyed support imposing a fine on Donald Trump, illustrating the varied but largely negative public sentiment regarding his legal predicament.
Independent Voters and the Call for Donald Trump to Step Down
Independent voters, who often play a pivotal role in determining election outcomes, are showing significant disapproval of President Donald continuing his 2024 campaign. Approximately 49% of Independents in the poll expressed that President Donald should abandon his presidential bid following his conviction. This perspective is critical as it indicates a substantial portion of the electorate is reconsidering their support for President Donald Trump due to his legal issues.
In contrast, 15% of likely Republican voters believe President Donald should cease his campaign, highlighting a division within the party. Among self-proclaimed Donald Trump supporters, only 8% think he should step down. This discrepancy underscores the challenge Donald Trump faces in maintaining broad-based support while navigating his legal battles and campaign efforts.
Republican Base’s Reaction to President Donald’s Conviction
Despite the conviction, a significant portion of the Republican base remains steadfast in their support for President Donald. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the guilty verdict was announced found that 56% of Republican voters indicated the conviction does not affect their voting intentions. Surprisingly, 35% stated they were more inclined to vote for President Donald Trump following the verdict, suggesting a rallying effect among his core supporters.
However, the poll also revealed that 10% of Republicans are now less likely to vote for Donald Trump due to his conviction. Among Independents, a quarter indicated a decreased likelihood of supporting Trump, while 18% said they were more likely to vote for him. These findings illustrate a divided electorate, with Trump’s legal issues potentially reshaping voter attitudes as the 2024 election approaches.
These polls collectively signal potential challenges for President Donald’s 2024 campaign, particularly in garnering support from Independents and maintaining unity within the Republican Party.
Reality Check: The Broader Context
Despite the mixed reactions to the verdict and the punishment, the poll reveals a more profound distrust in the criminal justice system among certain voter groups. Three in four Republican voters reported feeling less confident in the system following the verdict, illustrating the challenge of maintaining public trust in legal institutions during politically charged trials.
The poll also found that in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, President Donald remains competitive with President Joe Biden, with Biden at 45% and Donald Trump at 44%. This narrow margin suggests that, despite the legal setbacks and divided public opinion, Donald Trump retains a strong base of support that could play a decisive role in the 2024 election. The findings highlight the resilience of Donald Trump’s political influence and the ongoing polarization within the American electorate.
