As the 2024 election season winds to a close, Democrats face an uphill struggle to hold onto their razor-thin majority in the U.S. Senate. Among the battlegrounds that could determine the fate of the Senate, Texas has become a surprising focal point. Although Democrats have not won a statewide contest there in over three decades, they are setting their sights on unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz, hoping that demographic shifts and a favorable national mood on some key issues could give them a fighting chance.
Texas presents formidable challenges for Democrats, as the state’s political landscape has long been dominated by conservative priorities. Policies on immigration, abortion, and education are deeply rooted in the Republican ethos, making it difficult for Democratic candidates to find a foothold. However, the Democrats see potential in the narrow polling margins between Cruz and his Democratic opponent, Congressman Colin Allred, who is being positioned as a moderate voice capable of appealing to both sides of the political divide.
Cruz’s Political Legacy and Allred’s Rise
Senator Ted Cruz, a two-term incumbent, is well-known for his staunch conservative stances and combative style. His national reputation grew significantly after his 2016 presidential campaign, in which he won the Iowa caucuses with strong support from evangelical voters before ultimately losing the nomination to Donald Trump. Cruz’s visibility on issues central to the GOP base and his advocacy for limited government have helped solidify his base, even as some Texans question his decisions, such as his controversial trip to Cancun during a devastating winter storm in 2021.
In contrast, Colin Allred, a former NFL player and moderate Democrat from the Dallas area, is positioning himself as a relatable and pragmatic candidate. Allred, who served in the Obama administration before being elected to Congress, emphasizes issues like criminal justice reform and healthcare. His appeal extends to younger and more diverse voters in Texas, a demographic shift that Democrats hope will eventually turn the state into a viable swing state. Allred’s campaign has drawn substantial attention, particularly with high-profile appearances alongside Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and pop star Beyoncé, aiming to energize young and minority voters.
Challenges and Optimism for Texas Democrats
Despite the optimism, many political analysts remain skeptical about a Democratic win in Texas. The state has consistently leaned Republican, and Cruz’s base is strong, particularly among conservative voters focused on economic issues and border control. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classifies the race as “likely Republican,” noting that while Texas’s demographic changes make it a potential future battleground, the 2024 election may be too soon for Democrats to gain ground.
Democrats face a steep path to retaining Senate control, with several seats up for grabs in competitive states. Texas remains a long shot, and while the Democratic party is channeling substantial resources into battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, its Texas investment has been relatively modest. While grassroots enthusiasm and a close polling margin give Democrats hope, experts argue that the limited resources and historically low ticket-splitting among Texas voters could dampen Democratic prospects.
Strategic Investments and Long-Term Goals
The limited investment in Texas reflects the Democrats’ strategy to secure seats where they already hold a stronger footing. By allocating significant funds to Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democrats hope to retain crucial battleground seats, given their slim 51-seat Senate majority. Recent history shows that states rarely split their votes between presidential and Senate candidates from different parties, making Texas a high-risk proposition.
Nevertheless, the Democrats’ efforts in Texas are not entirely without purpose. High-profile rallies with Kamala Harris and celebrities like Beyoncé place a national spotlight on Texas’s stringent abortion laws, an issue where Democrats have an advantage in public opinion. Even if Allred falls short, the campaign could lay groundwork for future electoral battles, helping to bolster the Texas Democratic Party’s infrastructure for potential gains in the coming years. While this may not satisfy Democrats seeking immediate victories, it could represent a pivotal step in a long-term shift toward competitiveness in the Lone Star State.
